Browsing by Author "Mary Wainaina"

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    Mathematical Modeling of the effects of gender-based stigmatization on COVID-19 virus transmission in Kenya
    (www.noveltyjournals.com, 2022-09-28) George Kimathi; Kelvin Omori Obino; Mary Wainaina
    Covid-19 has spread throughout the globe,killed millions of people,shattered economies of even the superpower countries and made people to change their way of living since it was discovered in china. Covid19 reached kenya on march 2020 when the ministry of health announced the first positive case in the city of Nairobi from an international traveller. Understanding the transmission dynamics and effective control measures have been crutial for researchers in creating mathematical models and determining the transmission potential of covid-19 in new areas.Our research aims to determine the effect of gender-based stigmatization in the spread of covid-19 and therefore we developed a (𝑺, 𝑬𝒎, 𝑬𝒇 , 𝑰𝒎, 𝑰𝒇 , 𝑻, 𝑸,𝑹) mathematical model of Covid-19 comprising of eight compartments; Susceptible(S),Exposed male (𝑬𝒎) ,Exposed female (𝑬𝒇) , Infected male(Im),Infected female(𝑰𝒇),Treatment(T),Stigmatized (Q)and Recovered (R). We used the next generation matrix approach to calculate the reproduction number 𝑹𝟎,explore the occurrence of equilibrium points, both disease-free and endemic, and analyze their stabilities.We used MATLAB to solve and generate the numerical solutions of the model differential equations.After interpretation the results show that increase of stigmatization,increases the infection rate of of covid -19 and decrease of stigmatization decreases the infection rate of covid-19 for both male and female.Hence we recommended that the government and relevant authorities should use this report to curb stigmatization through sensitization,awareness, speaking against negative stereotypes and providing the necessary support required by encouraging people to take tests and seek healthcare immediately they start showing covid symptoms.
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    Mathematical Modelling of COVID-19 Transmission in Kenya: A Model with Reinfection Transmission Mechanism
    (HINDAWI, 2021-10-16) Isaac Mwangi Wangari; Stanley Sewe; George Kimathi; Mary Wainaina; Virginia Kitetu; Winnie Kaluki
    In this study we propose a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mathematical model that stratifies infectious subpopulations into: infectious asymptomatic individuals, symptomatic infectious individuals who manifest mild symptoms and symptomatic individuals with severe symptoms. In light of the recent revelation that reinfection by COVID-19 is possible, the proposed model attempt to investigate how reinfection with COVID-19 will alter the future dynamics of the recent unfolding pandemic. Fitting the mathematical model on the Kenya COVID-19 dataset, model parameter values were obtained and used to conduct numerical simulations. Numerical results suggest that reinfection of recovered individuals who have lost their protective immunity will create a large pool of asymptomatic infectious individuals which will ultimately increase symptomatic individuals with mild symptoms and symptomatic individuals with severe symptoms (critically ill) needing urgent medical attention. The model suggests that reinfection with COVID-19 will lead to an increase in cumulative reported deaths. Comparison of the impact of non pharmaceutical interventions on curbing COVID19 proliferation suggests that wearing face masks profoundly reduce COVID-19 prevalence than maintaining social/physical distance. Further, numerical findings reveal that increasing detection rate of asymptomatic cases via contact tracing, testing and isolating them can drastically reduce COVID-19 surge, in particular individuals who are critically ill and require admission into intensive care.
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    Mathematical Modelling of the Impact of stigmatization on Vaccination and on the Spread of COVID -19 in Kenya
    (www.researchpublish.com, 2022-09-26) George Kimathi; Mary Wainaina; Sharon Chebet
    In this study, a SEIR mathematical model incoporating stigmatization and vaccination is developed to asses the effect of stigma on vaccination and transmission dynamics of COVID-19. Unlike several earlier model studies on this condition, we took into account the impact of stigma on vaccination and transmission on COVID-19 .The disease free equilibrium is calculated and its stability proven using the Jacobin method,The endemic equilibrium is also evaluated and stability proven by Hurwitz criteria.The parameters are estimated using available data from the ministry of health and available literature review. Finally numerical analysis validate the prediction of the model.